It is oft said that “stories are about conflict”, but this is a gross simplification. /…/ What is common to all well-regarded stories is uncertainty, the desire to discover what happens next, and conflict (i.e. competition) is just one of many ways that uncertainty can be generated.
We people are pattern-seeking. As soon as we figured out the pattern, the task at hand became boring. This goes with anything we do, games and stories in particular, both huge elements in tabletop roleplaying games. As Jim Butcher points out in his thought-provoking article about sequels, what’s important isn’t the moment of uncertainty but what’s the aftermath. The uncertainty creates anticipation; the aftermath, however, creates an emotional response when the participant reviews what happened. And emotions make us remember. They make us care.
By bringing up different possibilities to insert uncertainty, it’s possible to create new kinds of roleplaying game mechanics, but you need a clear picture of what kind of consequences you want them to generate in the first place. Use the lists to inspire how the structures of your roleplaying game can enforce the response you want from the participant.
The lists below are from three sources, with examples taken from a Story Games thread, but I will first add my own, broken off from Costikyan’s Narrative Anticipation below.
Fantastical Elements
You have no idea what the world will be like if there are fantastical elements.
Telling a story about walking on the streets of London is relatable, but not if there are zombies in town.
Attending school is normal, but not if the students are wizards.
Mixing genres or other ways of taking them out of context.
MALABY
Beyond Play: A New Approach to Games
Stochastic Contingency
Stochastic is just a fancy word for “random”.
[see Randomness (LeBlanc) below]
Social Contingency
About never being certain of another person’s point of view.
an opponent in a Chess game.
having someone other than you in charge of saying what happens…
…a strong GM role with great control over the world / plotline…
one participant’s interpretation, perhaps having a rule system with open-deterministic results or using cards that are open for interpretation.
enforcing of people’s opinions, like voting for outcomes or making pacts.
using different techniques or rules during a scene, which may steer the story in a certain direction. “What? Is someone going to fall in love?”
Performative Contingency
You either succeed or fail at a task.
one participant’s effort in succeeding. (performance uncertainty)
two or more participants against each other.
Semiotic Contingency
The outcome is open for interpretation, changing the meaning of all the previous actions.
The good person was the bad person all along.
The game Train, where you discover the theme of the game while playing.
LEBLANC
Lecture at NYU
Incomplete Information
If you don’t have all the pieces, you don’t know where it’s going.
…players pick elements of the story that other players must include in other characters’ storylines.
…picking a different oracle and elements for each session inspires the players to create an interesting history full of twists
…hidden or undefined knowledge about something the players /…/ care about.
…exploration and mapping…
I would see Exploration and Mystery as two genres / elements that use curiosity at their core.
…Hexploration genre, where you can travel to each place in a sandboxy way…
one participant adding something that isn’t obvious what it’s for.
Randomness
The general solution in roleplaying games.
conflict resolution /…/ task resolution
…a random table or a deck of event cards or a stack of map tiles.
the use of real world happenings, like having the weather or certain events in the newspaper affect the session.
Emergent Complexity
The interaction between the pieces of information or the overflow of information makes it hard to predict the outcome.
parallel stories with one ending. How will the stories change each other?
telling a story with a fixed ending. Now you know how it’s going to end, but not how the story will travel to the end.
Escalation
Early points of the game don’t matter as much because the stakes are increasing all the time, like the three rounds in Jeopardy.
I think that the games people really like have good conflict escalation mechanisms (either formal mechanisms like in Apocalypse World or Polaris or in terms of initial set-up like in Poison’d.)
…strong characterownership where you can keep and reveal a secret about a character under your control.
Potential Barrier (Decelerator)
You don’t know if you will overcome them. They are there to change the scale and the pace, and to make the end seem closer than it is.
Sometimes you want to put out hints, create an expectation by setting up scenes and finally a big reveal that might lead to new questions.
Hidden Energy
Stored resources that may come in handy later.
Cards on hand.
Turned down tokens and other fog-of-war mechanics.
Secrets. Information, powers and more.
Cashing Out
The game score (or resources) resets, so everybody starts at the same level. Anybody can win.
From one combat to another in D&D4. Who will be standing next time?
COSTIKYAN
Uncertainty in Games
Costikyan repeats some of the points above, so the ones listed below are new additions.
Solver’s Uncertainty
Finding out the solution given by the designer.
Discovering the algorithm behind the game, like figuring out how the AI works.
Resolving a murder mystery.
Doing things in the right order.
Narrative Anticipation
To awaken a curiosity of what is to come.
Knowing the end doesn’t mean you know the way to reach that end.
Learning more about the characters over time.
Twists in story.
You wont understand the story unless you puzzle the bits together. Example: the Eastern Asian narrative structure Kishōtenketsu or the phrase “Show, don’t tell”.
You could tell a love story that actually focused on the positive side of it. A scenario about falling in love, about feeling it through your character and just wallowing in that feeling.
Replaying scenes in order to find out more in a scene, either exploring new perspectives or adding more information.
Development Anticipation
When the developers add more stuff to the game.
Release of expansion sets.
Updates, changes or corrections of the rules.
Change of playstyle or genre.
Schedule Uncertainty
Resources limit the time the player can spend on the game.
Energy in social games.
It takes a long time to build a certain element, where the player can’t do anything but wait.
Resources to build things are generated over time but runs out quickly.
A cap on the internet restricting the time for the player.
Perception Uncertainty
Difficulty in perceiving what’s going on.
A clogged up interface, like in Nethack.
Scanning the playing field, like the pieces in Tetris.
Finding the rhythm in, for example, dancing.
Jigsaw puzzles.
Trying to search a room to find more about what’s in it.
Randomless Renaissance 
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